Data analysis by Alsteni Medical
92%

of patients prescribed GLP-1 drugs for obesity will stop taking them within three years

Prime Therapeutics, June 2025 — analysis of 16.5 million covered lives.
The most effective obesity drugs ever developed have a retention problem.

Scroll to explore the data ↓

GLP-1 receptor agonists — Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound — are the most important obesity treatment in decades. In clinical trials, patients lost 15–20% of their body weight. For millions of people, these drugs delivered what no diet, exercise program, or previous medication ever could.

This is not an article about whether GLP-1 drugs work. They work.

This is about what happens next.

15–20%
Average weight loss in Phase 3 trials
STEP & SURMOUNT trials
30M
Americans projected on GLP-1 by 2030
J.P. Morgan, Jan 2026
12.4%
U.S. adults taking GLP-1 for weight loss
Gallup, Oct 2025

The Weight Loss Curve

What a typical GLP-1 patient’s weight trajectory actually looks like — including what happens after they stop.

The green line is the promise. The red line is the reality for the vast majority. Of patients who start GLP-1 therapy for obesity, 47–65% discontinue within the first year alone. JAMA Network Open, Jan 2025, n=125,474

By year three, only 8.1% are still taking their medication — meaning 91.9% have stopped. Prime Therapeutics, Jun 2025, n=16.5M covered lives

Why They Stop

The reasons 92% of patients discontinue GLP-1 therapy — from an analysis of 78,781 patients.

"GLP-1 receptor agonists should not be relied on as a magic cure for treating obesity. Healthy dietary and lifestyle practices should remain the foundation." — Qi Sun, MD, Brigham and Women’s Hospital / Harvard Medical School. BMJ Editorial, January 2026.

The Regain Clock

After stopping GLP-1 medication, weight regain is 4× faster than after behavioral interventions — regardless of how much weight was initially lost.

0
years to full regain
After stopping GLP-1 drugs
1.7 years · 0.8 kg/month regain · BMJ, Jan 2026
After stopping diet & exercise
~6.8 years · ~0.1 kg/month regain · Behavioral studies meta-analysis
Source: West et al., BMJ, January 7, 2026. Systematic review and meta-analysis, n=9,341 across 37 studies.

The Cost

GLP-1 therapy is designed to be taken indefinitely. Select a pricing tier to see what that means over time.

$0
over 5 years
1 Year
$4,188
Average U.S. household spends $4,942/yr on healthcare
3 Years
$12,564
Median down payment on a U.S. home: $26,700
5 Years
$20,940
Average annual salary for a U.S. restaurant worker

And if you’re in the 92% who stop, you’ll regain the weight within 1.7 years.

GLP-1 Lifecycle Simulator
Input your scenario. See the projected weight trajectory and cumulative cost based on published clinical data.
220
pounds
$349
per month
12
months
Peak weight loss
Net change at 5 years
Total spent
Cost per lb lost at 5 yrs
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Weight loss curve based on STEP 1 trial data (semaglutide 2.4 mg). Regain rate: 0.8 kg/month for semaglutide/tirzepatide (BMJ, West et al., Jan 2026). This is a population-level projection, not individual medical advice.

What alternatives exist for patients who cannot sustain chronic therapy?
Explore the Treatment Desert Map →

Sources

  1. Prime Therapeutics, "GLP-1 Therapy to Treat Obesity Among Members Without Diabetes: Three-Year Persistence," June 2025 (n=16.5 million covered lives).
  2. Cummings DE et al., "GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Discontinuation," JAMA Network Open, January 2025 (n=125,474).
  3. ISPOR/Truveta, "Reasons for GLP-1 Discontinuation," October 2025 (n=78,781).
  4. West S et al., "Weight regain after cessation of medication for weight management: systematic review and meta-analysis," BMJ, January 7, 2026 (n=9,341 across 37 studies).
  5. Wilding JPH et al., STEP 1 Extension Trial: weight regain after semaglutide withdrawal. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism, 2022 (n=327).
  6. Sun Q, "Weight regain after cessation of GLP-1 drugs," BMJ Editorial, January 2026.
  7. Novo Nordisk press release, February 24, 2026 (50% WAC reduction effective January 2027).
  8. White House Most Favored Nation Fact Sheet, November 2025 (Medicare GLP-1 at $245/month).
  9. J.P. Morgan Research, "How Supply and Demand for Weight Loss Drugs is Playing Out in 2026," January 2026.
  10. Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index, October 2025 (12.4% of U.S. adults taking GLP-1 for weight loss).